A Duna vízhozamának előrejelzése az éghajlatváltozás és a társadalmi alkalmazkodás válaszainak függvényében / Discharge forecast for the Danube River under climate change and adaptive socioeconomic responses

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Nyilvántartási szám: 
22/98
Témavezető neve: 
A téma rövid leírása, a kidolgozandó feladat részletezése: 
The Danube River is the most international catchment of the World, chaining 4 European capitals and gathering water from 16 countries. The river is a lifeline, it provides water, energy, and other ecosystem services for millions of people. Due to the high variety of services provided (energy production, drinking water resource, cooling water for power plants, disposal medium for wastewater, irrigation resource, etc.), future river discharge is key factors for the affected countries and deeply influences their adaptation capacity. 
 
The proposed PhD research targets producing stochastic discharge forecasts for selected Danube countries (including Hungary) based on modifying an existing regional hydrological model and running it under forcing of various climate models. Besides natural factors, anthropogenic adaptation measures of the upstream countries, such as strategies to retain water or to enhance the production of renewable energy should be considered and formulated into socioeconomic scenarios contributing to model forcing. As a synthesis, a blueprint for sustainable water usage and measures increasing resilience of water users should be developed.
A téma meghatározó irodalma: 
    1. Stagl J. C., F. F. Hattermann. Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regime of the Danube River and Its Tributaries Using an Ensemble of Climate Scenarios. Water. 2015; 7(11):6139-6172. https://doi.org/10.3390/w7116139
    2. Teutschbein, C.; Seibert, J. Regional Climate Models for Hydrological Impact Studies at the Catchment Scale: A Review of recent modeling Strategies. Geogr. Compass 2010, 4, 834–860.
    3. Probst, E.; Mauser, W. Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Danube River Basin: A Hydrological Modelling Study Using EURO-CORDEX Climate Scenarios. Water 2023, 15, 8. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15010008
    4. Yıldırım, Ü.; Güler, C.; Önol, B.; Rode, M.; Jomaa, S. Modelling of the Discharge Response to Climate Change under RCP8.5 Scenario in the Alata River Basin (Mersin, SE Turkey). Water 2021, 13, 483. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13040483
    5. Honti, M., Scheidegger, A. and Stamm, C. (2014) The importance of hydrological uncertainty assessment methods in climate change impact studies. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.,18:3301-3317.
    6. Whitehead, P. G., E. Barbour, M. N. Futter, S. Sarkar, H. Rodda, J. Caesar,  D. Butterfield, L. Jin, R. Sinha, R. Nicholls and M. Salehin. Impacts of climate change and socio-economic scenarios on flow and water quality of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) river systems: low flow and flood statistics. Environ. Sci.: Processes Impacts. 2015; 17, 1057. https://doi.org/10.1039/C4EM00619D
A téma hazai és nemzetközi folyóiratai: 
1. Water Resources Research
2. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
3. Water
4. Water Research (X)
A témavezető utóbbi tíz évben megjelent 5 legfontosabb publikációja: 
    1. Honti, M., C. Stamm, and P. Reichert (2013) Integrated uncertainty assessment of discharge predictions with a statistical error model, Water Resources Research 49:4866–4884, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20374.
    2. Honti, M., Scheidegger, A. and Stamm, C. (2014) The importance of hydrological uncertainty assessment methods in climate change impact studies. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.,18:3301-3317. 
    3. Doppler, T., Honti, M., Zihlmann, U., Weisskopf, P., and Stamm, C. (2014) Validating a spatially distributed hydrological model with soil morphology data. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18:3481-3498.
    4. Honti, M. (2015) : Controlling river eutrophication under conflicts of interests – A GIS modeling approach. Water 7(9): 5078-5090; doi:10.3390/w7095078
    5. Schuwirth N., Honti M., Logar I., Stamm C. (2018) Multi-criteria decision analysis for integrated water quality assessment and management support, Water Research X 1: 100010 , doi:10.1016/j.wroa.2018.100010.
A témavezető fenti folyóiratokban megjelent 5 közleménye: 
    1. Honti, M., C. Stamm, and P. Reichert (2013) Integrated uncertainty assessment of discharge predictions with a statistical error model, Water Resources Research 49:4866–4884, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20374.
    2. Honti, M., Scheidegger, A. and Stamm, C. (2014) The importance of hydrological uncertainty assessment methods in climate change impact studies. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.,18:3301-3317. 
    3. Doppler, T., Honti, M., Zihlmann, U., Weisskopf, P., and Stamm, C. (2014) Validating a spatially distributed hydrological model with soil morphology data. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18:3481-3498.
    4. Honti, M. (2015) : Controlling river eutrophication under conflicts of interests – A GIS modeling approach. Water 7(9): 5078-5090; doi:10.3390/w7095078
    5. Schuwirth N., Honti M., Logar I., Stamm C. (2018) Multi-criteria decision analysis for integrated water quality assessment and management support, Water Research X 1: 100010 , doi:10.1016/j.wroa.2018.100010.
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